KEY TAKEAWAY
Most
regional players have taken a strong, defensive military posture, placing
assets on alert and re-positioning them along vulnerable border areas.
UNITED STATES
The U.S. Navy has increased its
deployment of ships in the Eastern Mediterranean to five
Arleigh Burke Class destroyers carrying guided missiles: USS Stout, USS Mahan,
USS Ramage, USS Gravely, and USS Barry. For more on the capabilities of these
ships, see ISW’s recent report, "U.S.
Navy Positions Ships for Possible Strike against Syrian Targets."
UNITED KINGDOM
The U.K. deployed six Typhoon jets armed with air-to-air missiles to Akrotiri Air Force Base in Cyprus. These planes are positioned in a defensive capacity against possible retaliatory action by the Syrian regime.
TURKEY
Turkey is not mobilizing military troops, but is providing
support to the U.S. in the form of hosting
Incirlik Air Force base, near Adana. This US Air Force installation will likely
play a support role in any action that is taken. Patriot missile batteries have been positioned
along Turkey’s southern border with Syria, in Adana, Gazientep, and Kahramanmaraş. The slightly less capable Stinger and
I-Hawk interceptors have been placed in Kırıkhan.
Turkey has been placed
on state of alert against possible chemical or missile attacks from Syria, and
the Disaster and Emergency Management Directorate (AFAD) has stockpiled food
and gas masks in its provinces along the Syrian border. "Approximately
400" Chemical Biological Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) specialists
working with AFAD "started conducting extra exercises in Turkey's
southern and southeastern provinces of Hatay, Kilis, and Sanliurfa"
JORDAN
Jordanian, western, and American military teams have been
repositioned from southern Jordan to the Jordanian-Syrian border in the
governorates of Irbid and Mafraq, according to reports that emerged on
August 30. U.S. advisors are manning a Patriot missile battery in northeastern
Jordan, and a squadron of U.S. F-16s has been placed on alert. These planes
have been marked for defensive use only and are unlikely to take part in any
possible strike. Additionally, a state of emergency has been declared in the
area, with thousands of Jordanian soldiers
receiving gas masks according
to unnamed Jordanian officials. Unnamed sources also stated
that Special Forces (of unspecified nationality) are currently positioned at
the Jordanian-Syrian border in order to secure chemical weapons stocks. There
are also reports of population movement away from that part of the border.
ISRAEL
Israel has also been placed on alert, with 1,000 soldiers in
the Intelligence Corps, Home Front Command, and Air Force air defense units
being mobilized.
Missile defense units are on alert as
well, with Iron Dome batteries being positioned in Haifa, Ashkelon, Eilat, Tel
Aviv, and likely also in Jerusalem. Two additional batteries are being
repositioned to a currently undisclosed location. Israel also utilizes
Patriot and Arrow (Hetz) batteries, which are both being deployed in the north.
The limited number of units called up suggests that this is a defensive
posture, not a preparation for any offensive maneuvers. Cyber warfare units
attached to the IDF have been placed on alert as well.
IRAQ
According
to Secretary-General of the Council of Ministers, Ali al-Alaq, through the
Border Operations Command, has deployed forces to strengthen Iraqi Security
Forces (ISF) capabilities along the border. This re-positioning is intended to prevent an influx of rebel fighters from crossing
the Iraqi-Syrian border.
SYRIA
The Assad Regime has continued air
strikes against populated areas while reportedly evacuating
military installations and redeploying personnel into civilian areas,
especially universities.
LEBANESE HEZBOLLAH
Lebanese Hezbollah has mobilized forces in Southern Lebanon, but has
repeatedly indicated that it will not take action as long as any potential
strike is punitive and limited in scope.
RUSSIA
The Russian Navy is sending two warships,
a missile cruiser and anti-submarine ship to Mediterranean. Transit time from
Sevastopol is estimated at 2 days, which places them on station on or
about 8/31. They may be there simply to deter, but they might also be
positioned to interfere with U.S. ship movement, conduct jamming operations, or
use other delaying tactics.