by Jennifer Cafarella and Valerie Szybala
Key Takeaway:
ISIS has sustained its campaign in the countryside of Deir
ez-Zour province throughout its escalation in Iraq, indicating its continued
prioritization of this military effort inside of Syria despite increased
pressure from the regime. Although it is possible that ISIS will take an
operational pause in Syria to solidify its control and absorb its gains in
Iraq, it is likely to move swiftly in a renewed offensive fully to rout JN and
rebel forces from the Deir ez-Zour countryside and firmly to establish the
lines of control and oil reserves within its state.
After the fall of
Mosul, widespread celebrations were held throughout ISIS-held territory within
Syria in the Aleppo strongholds of Jarablus, al
Bab, Manbij, Deir
Heifer, and
Maskana, with a full parade held in ar-Raqqa. ISIS social media outlets reported
wildly on the ongoing advances in Iraq, using the hashtag #SykesPicotOver to celebrate the game-changing successes achieved in Iraq.
In addition to the outpouring of support on social media and in the streets of
ISIS’s Syrian territory, ISIS
commander in northern Syria Omar al-Shishani issued a “general communication”
urging support for our “brothers in Mosul.” These celebrations indicate the
cross-border resonance of ISIS operations in Iraq and Syria.
Raqqa &
Aleppo
ISIS firmly
solidified its control over the de-facto capital of its emirate in ar-Raqqa city
in early 2014. While local resistance to ISIS rule has continued, it has been
limited to low-level clashes and civilian protests that have fallen short of
posing a threat to ISIS’s control in the area. In northern ar-Raqqa province Kurdish
YPG forces regularly target ISIS positions in the countryside surrounding the
Tel Abyad border crossing with Turkey, but ISIS has been able to maintain
control of the crossing and has engaged in a number of vicious reprisal attacks
including executions and kidnapping of Kurdish civilians in an
attempt to deter future offensive raids. Tel Abyad is a key strategic location
for ISIS, likely serving as a transit point for foreign fighters and supplies
into ISIS’s ar-Raqqa stronghold.
ISIS has come
under increased pressure in Aleppo from rebel groups which have recently
launched an offensive to regain territory in the northeast of the province. The
Islamic front (IF), Jabhat al-Nusra (JN) and other Islamic brigades initiated a
renewed push against ISIS positions in the countryside, seizing a string of villages north of
the ISIS stronghold of al-Bab. The objective of the operation is to seize
control of the northern border village of al-Ra’ii which is likely used by ISIS
as a second route for foreign fighters and supplies. However, although the loss
of al-Ra’ii would negatively affect ISIS’s supply routes into its Aleppo
strongholds, there have been no indicators that the IF and JN intend to
escalate this offensive beyond minor countryside villages and directly attack
the ISIS strongholds of al-Bab, Manbij or Deir Heifer. In the absence of a
significant rebel offensive against these cities, ISIS is likely to remain secure
in its Aleppo strongholds as it transfers weapons, funds, and possibly new
recruits into its Syrian theater.
Deir ez-Zour
ISIS’s offensive to take control of parts
of Deir ez-Zour
from other rebels and to secure critical supply routes between Iraq and
ar-Raqqa has met with relative success since it began in March. However, ISIS has been unable to claim a
decisive victory as Syrian rebels, tribes, and JN all rallied together in defense of the province.
The Mujahideen
Shura Council, consisting of the IF, JN, other rebel brigades, and local tribal
militias was declared on May 25 to counter ISIS in
the province and has continued to challenge ISIS. Members of the council have
continuously engaged in clashes with ISIS in the strategic as-Suwar – Deir
ez-Zour – al-Basira triangle as they attempt to disrupt ISIS’s attempt to
consolidate its supply lines and sources of revenue. This fighting has resulted
in large civilian displacement in the area, prompting the FSA’s Supreme
Military Command to declare the province a disaster
area and to call for
humanitarian assistance.
Deir ez-Zour Province
Despite this
resistance, ISIS seized a number of countryside villages to the west of Deir
ez-Zour city in consolidation of its supply route from Aleppo province, and took
control of the bridge connecting the city with the suburbs, cutting off rebel
movement and the entrance of humanitarian aid. With the regime still
maintaining control of the remaining supply routes into the city as well as a
small presence in several northern neighborhoods, the city has been effectively
under siege, prompting online activists to launch a campaign under the hashtag #DeirEzzorNeedYourHelp to draw attention to the crisis. Media reporting on Deir ez-Zour on June 12,
2014 highlighted the ISIS siege of the city and the possibility of an impending
ISIS attack to fully secure the city, fears that were echoed by a plea by the SMC to “regional
backers” to aid rebel forces in the province against ISIS.
ISIS map of its positioning within ar-Raqqa and Deir ez-Zour
provinces
Possible
Courses of Action in Syria in the wake of ISIS’s Iraq Campaign
Indicators that
ISIS is undertaking a significant transfer of captured vehicles and weapons
back into Syria emerged at the very beginning of the currently ongoing Iraq
campaign, beginning with the capture of Mosul in early June. Vehicles
reportedly began arriving on June 12, 2014 in the ISIS stronghold of Tel Hamis in Hasaka province around 20
miles south of Qamishli, the provincial border crossing into Iraq. Activists
posted photos purporting to show ISIS Commander Abu Omar al-Shishani inspecting U.S. Humvees reportedly
transported from Mosul into Syria. In addition, a video was circulated by pro-ISIS
media of a convoy arriving in ash-Shadadi, which lies on the Khabur River in
Hasaka province north of Deir ez-Zour and serves as ISIS’s strategic rear
across both Iraq and Syria.
ISIS Emir in Northern Syria Abu Omar ash-Shishani
Inspects Iraqi Army Humvees
Translation: Spoils of war that
from God that his fighters (Mujahideen) have after the destruction of the
Sykes-Picot Borders
Translation: ISIS spoils of war
coming from Iraq and headed to the Levant after the destruction of the ‘artificial’
border,’ praise God
The infusion of significant military assets and resources
into the Syria theater has provoked a regime challenge to ISIS in eastern
Syria. In the wake of the Iraq campaign, regime warplanes have conducted numerous
airstrikes against ISIS headquarters, targeting the Tabaqa dam, ar-Raqqa city,
Tel
Hamis, the ash-Shadadi
stronghold, and a number of other locations along the Syrian-Iraq border in
Deir ez-Zour province. These
air strikes are a notable escalation in the regime’s disposition toward ISIS,
which to date it had largely refrained from confronting. However, while these
strike may be disruptive to ISIS’s ability to consolidate and reinforce its
effort in Deir ez-Zour province, there are no indicators that they will be
successful in defeating ISIS in Syria.
ISIS has continued
to pursue its objective in the Deir ez-Zour countryside throughout the Iraq
campaign, indicating an ongoing prioritization of this effort despite the
increased pressure from the Syrian regime. A direct ISIS attack on regime
strongholds in ar-Raqqa and Deir ez-Zour provinces could attempt to relieve the
pressure inflicted by ongoing regime airstrikes. However, there are no
indicators that ISIS intends to escalate against the regime, as it is a course
of action that would come at a much higher cost than ISIS is likely to accept.
Instead, ISIS is likely to reinvigorate its efforts in Deir ez-Zour with its
newfound military assets. In an early indicator of this line of effort, ISIS targeted a nearby JN headquarters with a
suicide vehicular-borne explosive device (SVBIED) as it launched a concerted attempt to regain control of the
contested al-Basira village on June 17. While clashes are still ongoing, this
renewed effort indicates that ISIS is committed to securing key supply routes
and oil fields in Deir ez-Zour province.
The control of critical supply routes has historically been the first
step of an ISIS expansion.
With the windfall of arms, men, and cash that it has taken from its
gains in Iraq, ISIS may finally have the strength needed to rout other rebels
from Deir ez-Zour and to secure full control of its supply lines and oil fields. If it is successful, ISIS may launch an
expansive push back into western Syria in an attempt to regain territory lost after
the outbreak of infighting between ISIS and JN in January 2014.