By Jennifer Cafarella
Recent ISIS operations in Hasaka
and Ninewa provinces indicate that ISIS has begun to further merge its northern
battlefronts across the Syrian-Iraq border. ISIS is eradicating pockets of
resistance that fall within the territory ISIS seeks to claim for its
Caliphate, including the Iraqi city of Sinjar near the border in Ninewa
province. ISIS seized the city of Sinjar on August 3, 2014 despite the
protection of the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga forces, roughly 100 km east of Hasaka
city, the provincial capital of the adjacent Syrian province. ISIS operations in
these Northern provinces are likely linked, and the recent ISIS offensive in
northern Iraq must be evaluated through a cross-border lens. Since mid-July
ISIS has seized control of the Regiment 121 Artillery Base in Hasaka Province
in addition to the Division 17 and Brigade 93 Bases in ar-Raqqa Province. ISIS
forces also appear to be mobilizing to seize the final base in ar-Raqqa, the
Tabqa Military Airbase. Significantly, these operations have proceeded in
tandem with a campaign to remove internal threats to the Caliphate posed by
isolated Syrian regime bases in ar-Raqqa province, and it appears ISIS is
quickly moving toward a successful consolidation and hardening of its exterior
borders in Northern Syria.
Hasaka Province
Since
ISIS seized control of Mosul on June 10, ISIS has successfully merged its southern Deir ez-Zour and
Anbar systems. Syria’s northeastern Hasaka Province is becoming a primary
battleground as ISIS continues to consolidate its gains in Iraq and Syria and begins
to merge its Hasaka and Ninewa areas of operation. Hasaka hosts important logistical
lines of communication that connect ISIS strongholds in ar-Raqqa to recent ISIS
gains in Ninewa, making Hasaka a significant front for ISIS operational
planning. The province is also home to a large portion of Syria’s oil fields, a
valuable strategic asset that ISIS has fought to control elsewhere in Syria.
The main body of the Syrian opposition is largely absent from the province, where
a low regime footprint and a large Kurdish population render it an undesirable area
for most counter-regime forces in the Syrian opposition.[1]
While Syrian Kurds in northern Syria declared their independence from the
central government in the fall of 2013, they nonetheless cooperate at local
levels with regime forces for purposes of social control.
The
military arm of the de-facto independent Kurdish PYD party, the YPG, is in
control of much of the province’s countryside and capitalizes on local support
from Christian and Arab tribal elements to defend against ISIS incursions. The
Kurdish Asayish security forces in charge of maintaining control inside city
centers also coordinate locally with the regime’s NDF militias,
which include units of Arab tribesmen from the al-Sharabiyin and al-Tay tribes
in addition to elements of Christian militias. At the time of the fall of
Mosul, the Syrian regime maintained control of the Qamishli airport and three
hardened military bases throughout the province in addition to maintaining
internal control within the major cities of Hasaka and Qamishli. The provincial
capital of Hasaka City has remained under joint control between Syrian regime
and Kurdish forces, each of which maintain control over different neighborhoods
with coordination to ensure service provision and quality of life within the
city.
Rather
than targeting these regime enclaves, ISIS operations within the province throughout
June and early July were largely directed against YPG forces in the countryside
surrounding the cities of Ras al-Ayn and Qamishli on the Turkish border. In
these zones, small units of ISIS fighters operating in strategically located
villages regularly contested terrain held by Kurdish YPG forces in the
countryside and maintained limited pressure on regime and YPG resupply lines to
Hasaka city. ISIS forces also leveraged support from local Arab tribal elements, including the Sharabia tribe, a
local rival to the YPG-allied Shaamar tribe. The most significant ISIS stronghold
in the province’s northern countryside is located at Tel Hamis deep within the
countryside northeast of Hasaka City, which ISIS assumed firm control after
successfully repulsing an attempt by the YPG to seize the village
in early January 2014. South of the city, it is assessed that the ISIS
stronghold at ash-Shaddadi continues to serve as a command headquarters for
ISIS forces throughout eastern Syria in addition to facilitating cross-border
lines of communication and transit into Iraq’s Ninewa province.
This
ISIS activity in the Hasaka countryside focused on maintaining lines of
communication that traverse the province in addition to creating sufficient
operating room for ISIS forces to mobilize on other fronts. However, ISIS
forces also conducted initial shaping operations to isolate Hasaka city from
its flow of supplies from Qamishli to the north. ISIS targeted the areas surrounding Qamishli
Airport with Grad rockets and conducted kidnappings of several bus passengers
on the Hasaka-Qamishli road in late June. ISIS forces also continued to contest
the towns of Tal Ma’arof, Kharab al-A’skar, and Tel Alo in the
YPG-controlled countryside south of Qamishli throughout July. Interdicting a
second major supply line to Hasaka City, ISIS has pressured YPG forces along
the Ras al-Ayn – Hasaka road, targeting YPG forces in the vicinity of Tel
Tamir, a town strategically located at the junction of two of the province’s
major highways. An IED detonated in a car along the road between
Hasaka City and Tel Tamir on July 3, killing a PYD council member and a member
of the town’s Popular Council. In addition, an ISIS SVBIED reportedly disguised
as a truck bringing supplies to the area targeted a YPG camp just northwest of Tel
Tamir on the road to Ras al-Ayn on July 13, killing eight. While limited in
scope, these attacks in the weeks prior to the attack on Sinjar demonstrate the
ability of ISIS to penetrate deep into YPG-controlled territory in zones likely
marked for future incorporation into the Islamic State.
ISIS advances
against critical regime installations
ISIS
significantly escalated attacks against the Syrian regime throughout much of
northeastern Syria beginning in mid-July. ISIS forces attacked regime positions in Deir ez-Zour
city and launched a significant offensive against the al-Sha’er gas field in the
Homs desert in central Syria on July 16. While the regime was ultimately able
to recapture the gas field, the ISIS attack served
to test regime responses and to force a regime deployment of significant
reinforcements to an area highly isolated from other critical fronts. This
feint by ISIS was likely calculated to soften regime targets elsewhere in Syria.
Three days after the regime launched an offensive to regain control of the gas field, ISIS
began a highly successful campaign against regime bases throughout Northern
Syria. These include the Regiment 121 Artillery base in Hasaka Province in
addition to the Division 17 and Brigade 93 bases in ar-Raqqa Province, with
indicators of an upcoming ISIS attack to seize the Tabqa Military Airbase. The ISIS seizure of three regime military bases
in Northern Syria serves to set the stage for ISIS forces in Hasaka and ar-Raqqa
to achieve territorial continuity across northern Syria after the elimination
of internal threats to the borders of the Caliphate.
ar-Raqqa
ISIS
forces launched an attack to seize control of the Division 17 base just north
of ar-Raqqa city on July 23. Two SVBIEDs were detonated at the entrance
to the base, allowing ISIS fighters to advance into southern portions of the
base. While there were reports that these VBIEDs detonated shy
of their targets, the ISIS advance was nonetheless successful, and ISIS
fighters immediately posted a video from inside the military housing
facility inside the base. After the initial advance, ISIS beheaded six regime soldiers and
displayed their severed heads near the al-Na’im roundabout within ar-Raqqa
city. ISIS’s Wilayat ar-Raqqa account announced a curfew in ar-Raqqa on July
24, allegedly so that ISIS could hunt down regime forces who had escaped into
the city. Regime forces immediately launched over 14 airstrikes against ar-Raqqa and Tabqa
cities as helicopter gunships targeted ISIS positions, likely to
provide cover for a large-scale regime withdrawal. Regime forces withdrew
northward toward the al-Rayhat village, however ISIS ambushed a contingent of the
withdrawing forces in the town of Abu Sharib, capturing and executing 50 regime soldiers on July 25. A
total of 300 soldiers are reported to have successfully withdrawn to al-Rayhat,
while additional hundreds relocated to the Division 93 base in Ayn
Isa, roughly 40 km south of Tel Abyad on the Turkish border. “Tens” of soldiers
are also reported to have reached the Tabqa military airbase southwest
of ar-Raqqa city. The regime also launched two scud missiles against ISIS
positions in ar-Raqqa from the Brigade 155 base in Qalamoun, and SOHR reported
that a regime convoy supported by both fixed and rotary wing aircraft was deployed from al-Salamia to ar-Raqqa on
July 25.
ISIS
fighters seized the entirety of ar-Raqqa’s 17th
Division Base on July 25 following the full withdrawal of the regime forces
that had remained to provide cover. ISIS social media accounts in ar-Raqqa
posted dozens of pictures of seized equipment as well as
pictures of fighters sleeping and praying inside the base. 105 regime fighters,
including at least 19 officers, were reportedly killed during the assault, while more
than 140 soldiers are still missing. General Salim Hassoun and General Jihad
Habib al-Qadda are rumored to be among those killed. Following
a short period of consolidation in ar-Raqqa, ISIS forces launched an offensive
to capture the Brigade 93 base north of ar-Raqqa city near the village of Ayn
Issa. ISIS reportedly ordered the residents of villages surrounding
the base to evacuate the area on July 29. A full ISIS offensive against the
base was declared by the ISIS Wilayat ar-Raqqa on
August 5, immediately followed by the detonation of three SVBIEDs against the base and a swift
ISIS seizure of much of the base. SOHR reported that 15 ISIS fighters and 36
regime soldiers were killed, some of which were symbolically beheaded by ISIS after the attack. By
August 8, ISIS forces gained full control of the base and regime forces were reported to have pulled back towart the
Tabqa military airport in addition to villages west of the fallen Brigade 93
base. At the time of writing, ISIS forces appear to be mobilizing its forces and equipment to
storm the Taqba base, the last regime stronghold in ar-Raqqa province.
Hasaka
In
response to the initial ISIS escalation in Deir ez-Zour and the Homs Desert in
mid-July, the Syrian regime increased its pressure against ISIS positions in
Southern Hasaka Province, targeting areas controlled by ISIS south
of Hasaka city, such as the al-Khair silos and the Karama village. Likely in retaliation
for this increase in regime pressure on ISIS positions, two IEDs exploded in Hasaka City on July 22, one
in a store near the al-Qahira Cinema and one targeting a store selling alcohol on
al-Ahram street, killing a total of seven. These explosions were a notable
departure from the city’s relative calm throughout the war and predicated a
significant ISIS escalation against fortified regime infrastructure south of
the city. Hours after launching a the offensive against the Division 17
military base north of ar-Raqqa City, ISIS fighters attacked the Regiment 121
artillery base in Malabiah south of Hasaka City. In response, the regime
immediately closed all roads leading into the city,
instituted a curfew, and conducted air raids around the base. However, regime forces
were unable to repel the attacking ISIS forces, which received reinforcements on July 24.
Simultaneous
attacks against other regime installations in the province neutralized the
regime’s ability to reinforce the base and prevented an immediate counterattack
against the ISIS rear. While also attacking the “Kawkab” military base east
of the city, ISIS deployed three SVESTS against a military operations center within the city, reportedly by
disguising the suicide bombers in NDF uniforms. A leading member of the Ba’ath
party named Hanna Atalla was reportedly killed in the attack. Effectively
severing the regime resupply line from Qamishli ISIS forces seized the town of Safiya, located 10
km north of Hasaka City at a critical juncture in the two Qamishli-Hasaka
highways. Farther north, a number of explosions occurred in Qamishli city: first,
a large explosion targeted the local headquarters
of military intelligence on al-Wahda Street. Syrian state news outlet SANA also
reported the detonation of second explosive device planted in the city’s
southern al-Tay neighborhood, and ISIS reportedly targeted a bus transporting regime forces
with a stun grenade.
Finally,
as fighting in the Regiment 121 base continued, an ISIS SVBIED detonated at the Panorama
checkpoint at the southern entrance to Hasaka city on July 26 amidst clashes in
the area between ISIS and YPG fighters. The SVBIED is likely to have hindered
the regime’s ability to reinforce the Regiment 121 base, and the ISIS Wilayat
Baraka (Hasaka) twitter account subsequently claimed to have successfully halted a
regime military convoy at the checkpoint. After three days of clashes, ISIS seized full control of the base on July
27. A prominent NDF commander named Abdul-Samad al-Nazzal was reportedly killed during the fighting in addition to
General Miziad Salameh, the commander of Regiment 121.
Following the full seizure of the base, ISIS released pictures purporting to document a large
quantity of heavy weaponry seized from within the base, including at least four
howitzers. ISIS social media accounts also released a video tour of the base and the captured
military equipment.
While
rumors initially emerged that regime forces withdrew from the city itself in
order to reinforce key remaining military bases elsewhere in the province, it
appears the regime instead consolidated control of its own critical infrastructure within the city, such as water pumping stations and jails, with the help of
security forces and the NDF, while possibly transferring further control of
certain neighborhoods to Kurdish forces. An official PYD account reassured civilians that Kurdish forces
maintained full control over the administration of Kurdish areas of the city,
and the YPG conducted a military parade in the Salhiya neighborhood in a
show of strength on July 31. While fighting in the city’s southern countryside
initially continued, regime forces claim to have
consolidated control of the southern outskirts of the
city amidst a reported ISIS withdrawal into its own territory deeper
south of the city. Clashes between regime forces and ISIS
in the village of Sabe Sekor southeast of the city on July 31 indicate that the
ISIS forces that attacked the Kawkab military base likely withdrew southeast
toward the Iraqi border. A primary transit route for ISIS fighters between Iraq
and Syria, this zone is likely a staging area for ISIS forces operating in the
Jazeera desert, and could have been the area from which ISIS forces mobilized
in the August 3 attack on Sinjar.
In
addition, some ISIS forces withdrew west of the city, forcing a civilian relocation from the western al-Neshwa area
of the city due to heavy ISIS bombardment to cover its retreating forces.
Further clashes erupted on August 5 between
gunmen and YPG fighters near al-Bairuti Bridge at the northern entrance to the southern
Gweran neighborhood of Hasaka city after a military convoy of YPG fighters
attempted to enter the neighborhood and make
arrests. It is possible this altercation was the result of the distribution of
an August 4 ISIS statement that called for residents in
Syria’s northeast region to halt their support for the YPG and foreshadowed an
impending ISIS assault upon Hasaka city. Reports have emerged that the regime is considering
relocating the official administration of Hasaka province to the city of
Qamishli amidst fears of a full ISIS offensive against the city, and negotiations are reportedly ongoing over the
formation of a joint Governing Council for the city that could facilitate a
regime drawdown.
The
ISIS main effort against the Regiment 121 Artillery Base is likely to have
deployed from the ISIS stronghold of al-Shadadi in southern Hasaka Province,
however the supporting efforts in the cities of Hasaka and Qamishli were likely
staged from elsewhere within the province, possibly the ISIS stronghold in Tel
Hamis. Pro-ISIS activists posted on Twitter that the combined offensives in
ar-Raqqa and Hasaka involved a total of 1,400 fighters: 600 in ar-Raqqa and 800
in Hasaka, although this is impossible to verify. An ISIS mobilization near Ras al-Ayn was reported by
SOHR on July 17, and it is possible that these forces were integrated into the
offensive against Hasaka City. The requirements for consolidating control in
Deir ez-Zour in addition to the simultaneous escalation in ar-Raqqa province
makes it unlikely that the ISIS force in Hasaka drew manpower from elsewhere
within Syria. It is equally unlikely that ISIS forces were reallocated from
Iraq, due to the requirements to mount the significant escalation against the
Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga on August 3. Therefore, it is assessed that ISIS did
not relieve other positions within either theatre in order to conduct this
operation.
The
seizure of these three regime bases removed obstacles for ISIS freedom of
movement within the areas of operation south of Hasaka city and north of
ar-Raqqa city. ISIS will likely attempt to seize the city of Hasaka itself in
order to successfully link these two systems, as the major highways that allow
for transit northwest into ar-Raqqa province pass through the city’s
outskirts. While ISIS will likely
continue to pressure regime and YPG supply lines through Qamishli, an attack
against the city itself is unlikely in the near term. The city’s distance from
current ISIS lines of communication makes it an less likely objective, and its
importance to both the YPG and the regime will ensure stiff resistance and
provide a strong deterrence against an ISIS attack.
Sinjar
While
shifting to a consolidation phase in Hasaka, ISIS forces in Iraq’s Ninewa
province attacked the isolated Kurdish stronghold
of Sinjar on August 3, successfully forcing a tactical retreat by Iraqi Kurdish
Peshmerga forces. The assault appears to have been conducted by the ISIS
Wilayat Ninewa force, likely the same force that seized the city of Mosul on
June 10. However, testament to the cross-border nature of the full ISIS force
in this area, ISIS’s Syrian Wilayat al-Baraka (Hasaka) claimed to have sent fighters to
participate in a subsequent attack against the village of Khan Suwwar north of
the Sinjar mountains. The seizure of Sinjar represents a linked effort to
neutralize threats to the ISIS interior, successfully removing a key obstacle
to the territorial integrity linking its Hasaka and Ninewa Wilayats. If ISIS
continues to expand in northern Iraq, ISIS forces may turn northward to the oil
fields in Syria’s Hasaka province after securing and hardening the current
borders of its Caliphate. The fields remain under YPG control, and are
likely to be heavily defended by both YPG and local tribal elements. ISIS
forces to date have largely refrained from mounting a meaningful challenge to
this control, as the fields present a hardened target with less immediate implications
for the consolidation of the Caliphate. However, a two-front offensive against
Hasaka’s northeast launched from the ISIS stronghold of Tel Hamis in Hasaka and
ISIS positions within Ninewa province may have sufficient momentum to
meaningfully challenge the YPG for control of the oil infrastructure. As such,
a campaign into northeastern Hasaka is a possible future course of action if
ISIS is able to secure and harden the current borders of its Caliphate.
Following
the fall of Sinjar, Syrian Kurdish YPG forces moved in to control the Iraqi
side of the Yarubiya border crossing and to counter an ISIS advance against the
nearby Iraqi town of Rabia. According to a statement released by the YPG
General Command, 700 Peshmerga fighters initially retreated into Syrian territory following
the ISIS assault on Sinjar, where some are reported to have received medical treatment by Kurdish doctors. In the
statement the YPG also committed to cooperating at the “highest levels” with
the Peshmerga in order to counter the ISIS assault. In addition, YPG forces
have opened routes into Kurdish territory in Hasaka
Province for refugees fleeing
from Sinjar. Co-chairman of the PYD Salih Muslim confirmed YPG involvement in
Iraq, stating during a telephone interview
that the forced withdrawal of the Peshmerga from Sinjar prompted the YPG to
cross the border “to support and assist” the Peshmerga forces. He also stated
that YPG forces crossed the border from several locations, likely in the effort
to manage the flow of refugees. On August 4, a redeployment of Peshmerga forces to the
border allowed the combined Kurdish forces to successfully regain control of the border crossing
after clashes with ISIS. In addition, YPG and Peshmerga forces continue to contest ISIS positions on the nearby
outskirts of Rabia. According to the head of the YPG’s information center, YPG
forces have conducted five successful operations against ISIS forces in Ninewa
province and participated in attacks by the Peshmerga
against ISIS forces in Zumar and Kaskie in addition to Rabia.
The
YPG defense of Iraqi Kurds and Yezidis against ISIS is the first case of YPG
deployment outside of Syrian territory. The Syrian PYD had previously attempted and failed to reach an agreement
with the Iraqi Kurdish National Council (KNC) to create joint de-facto
administrations in northern Syria that could have provided for military
cooperation between the two bodies. Without the support of the president of the
Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Iraq Mahmoud Barzani, the PYD was forced
to negotiate local settlements with Christian and Arab groups in order to
secure its territory. This balancing within northern Syria is unlikely to
change in the wake of the fall of Sinjar and the deployment of the YPG into
Iraqi territory. While local support to the Peshmerga near the Syrian-Iraqi
border to deter further ISIS advances in this zone is in the interest of the
YPG, Syria will undoubtedly remain its primary focus.
Further,
sources of local support to the YPG within Syria will prove increasingly
crucial if ISIS continues to advance within Hasaka province. Testament to the
importance of local relationships for continued YPG control in the province, in
late July the PYD appointed Humaydi Dahmam al-Assi al Jarba,
a member of the Shammar tribe and a cousin of former Syrian Coalition chief
Ahmad Jarba, as co-governor of Hasaka Province. The Shammar tribe has historically
facilitated YPG operations against ISIS, and was instrumental in the YPG’s
ability to reinforce the Yarubiya border crossing and to secure YPG control of Hasaka’s
oil fields after the fall of Mosul. The deepening of these ties is an indicator
of the continued importance of local Syrian alliances within the Kurdish war
effort against ISIS. As ISIS continues to push forward with its campaign in
Northern Iraq and Syria, the continued ability of the YPG and the Peshmerga to
continue mount successful resistance will be a limiting factor in the ISIS
advance.
Conclusion
Through a significant
escalation against the Syrian regime and the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga beginning
in mid-July, ISIS forces have made large advances in a campaign to consolidate
internal control within the Caliphate. The Syrian regime’s Regiment 121, Division
17, and Brigade 93 military bases have fallen to ISIS, and indicators have
emerged of an upcoming ISIS attack against the Tabqa military airbase southwest
of ar-Raqqa City. ISIS has also seized the Peshmerga stronghold at Sinjar in
the west of Iraq’s Ninewa Province, successfully consolidating its internal
line of control across the Jazeera desert into Syria. The breath of these
linked offensives across Iraq and Syria illustrate the ISIS priority objective
of establishing territorial integrity for the Caliphate, and are evidence of
the large military capacity ISIS still possesses nearly two months after the
fall of Mosul.
In
order to achieve its goal of establishing a functional, viable state ISIS must continue
to leverage its military capabilities to consolidate its interior lines across
Iraq and Syria and form a set of identifiable and defensible borders.
Eliminating interior vulnerabilities is a key component of this effort and is
likely to remain a primary objective for the ISIS military campaign in ensuing
weeks. The victories in ar-Raqqa, Hasaka, and Ninewa suggests that ISIS
operational objectives prioritize setting the stage for the consolidation of
control over logistical lines of communication from the Iraqi border and the
current operational zone in southern Hasaka to strongholds in ar-Raqqa province
in order to secure freedom of movement between currently separate systems. As
continued military successes from increasingly unified theatres of operation fuel
the ISIS war machine, a hardened ISIS exterior line is likely to allow ISIS
forces to pursue further expansion.
[1] An initial Jabhat al-Nusra (JN)
and Ahrar al-Sham (HASI) footprint in villages near the Syrian-Iraqi border
challenged the YPG within the Hasaka countryside, but was largely replaced in
early 2014 by an ISIS threat as the JN-ISIS schism took hold and prompted a JN
and HASI withdrawal to the west.