By:
Jennifer Cafarella
Primarily Islamist
and jihadist rebel
forces supported by al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat
al-Nusra (JN) seized
control
of the regime-held city
of Jisr al-Shughour, southwest of Idlib City, on April 25, 2015. Jisr
al-Shughour was a major regime stronghold in Idlib Province that many expected
to present a difficult, hardened military target to anti-Assad forces. Reports
prior to the fall of Idlib City to JN and rebel forces on March 28, 2015
indicated that the regime withdrew military assets to Jisr al-Shughour,
possibly indicating regime intent to prioritize its defense over Idlib City. The
fall of Jisr al-Shughour to JN and rebel forces is therefore a key indicator of
the regime’s inability to defend terrain against increasingly coordinated
anti-Assad forces without the assistance of Iranian proxies such as
Hezbollah.
JN and rebel
forces declared the “Battle of
Victory” to seize Jisr al-Shughour on April 22, 2015. Anti-Assad forces
made immediate gains following a JN VBIED
attack north of the city allowing JN and rebels to seize three
regime checkpoints
and advance
into the city’s urban terrain. JN and rebel forces exploited their initial
penetration to seize wide segments of the city despite considerable regime aerial
bombardment. Regime forces withdrew on April 25, allegedly
using civilians as human shields to cover their withdrawal, and reportedly
executing
23 detainees held at the Military Intelligence Branch before withdrawing. JN
and HASI
each raised a flag in the central square of the
city.
The operation
was commanded and controlled through a newly established operations room, which
coordinated
the involvement of JN, Ahrar al-Sham (HASI), Jaysh al-Islam, Ansar al-Sham, and
the jihadist Jabhat Ansar al-Din coalition. The offensive also included participation from the primarily
Chechen jihadist group Junud al-Sham in addition to the Turkistan
Islamic Party in Syria. Two FSA-affiliated groups, the First Coastal
Division and 13th Division, also participated, according to videos uploaded
to YouTube of the groups firing TOW anti-tank missiles near the city. The
coordination of this offensive through a joint operations room with large JN participation
and likely leadership represents a second major success for JN in northern Syria.
JN established a model for the command and control of joint offensives in the Jaysh
al-Fatah operations room that seized
Idlib City on March 28. This victory likely incentivized rebel forces to buy
into a JN-led operation at Jisr al-Shughour. JN cements its value to Syrian rebels
and deepens its foothold in Syria by providing rebel forces with an effective
vehicle for establishing unity of effort against the Assad regime, and by
directly contributing to battlefield success. The increasingly Islamist and
jihadist composition of rebel ranks in northern Syria, in part generated by
JN’s action to sideline prominent moderate factions, furthermore strengthens
JN’s position in northern Syria.
Logo
of the “Battle of Victory” operations room, released via Twitter April 22, 2015
The offensive to
seize Jisr al-Shughour was one component of a larger campaign to seize control
of the entirety of Idlib Province and to connect rebel systems in Idlib to
rebel-held terrain in northern Hama Province. As JN and rebels consolidate in
Jisr al-Shughour, two additional offensives are still ongoing. The first,
undertaken by the Jaysh al-Fatah operations room, seeks to seize control of
remaining regime strongholds south of Idlib City. A major Jaysh
al-Fatah offensive is currently underway
against the Qarmeed
and Mastouma
military camps, with likely intent to advance on the regime stronghold of Ariha
next. Prior reports indicated that the regime deployed
its elite “Tiger Forces” unit to reinforce this area, however the regime’s
inability to resupply or further reinforce these positions after the fall of
Jisr al-Shughour may enable JN and rebel success. Meanwhile, HASI, Ajnad
al-Sham, and other rebel groups continue the “Battle to Free Sahel al-Ghab” to
push north through the al-Gahb plain in an attempt to eliminate a regime-held “buffer
zone” that separates rebel-held terrain in Hama and Idlib Provinces from the Alawite-majority
province of Latakia. This offensive has made considerable gains,
seizing numerous towns in the countryside south of Jisr al-Shughour. Together
these three offensives are likely to provide sufficient momentum to JN and
rebel forces to accomplish their objectives in Idlib Province, and will likely
position anti-Assad forces for possible future operations to penetrate key
regime terrain in the coastal Alawite heartland in Latakia Province.
Map
released
by Ahrar al-Sham via Twitter, April 25, 2015 depicting the three underway
offensives
The ongoing JN
and rebel gains in Idlib Province in 2015 have dealt a considerable blow to the
Assad regime. They have furthermore demonstrated an increasing sophistication
of rebel campaign design, likely enabled by JN’s deepening role. The Jaysh
al-Fatah and Sahel al-Ghab operations facilitated the seizure of Jisr
al-Shughour by limiting the regime’s ability to reinforce across fronts, while simultaneously
pursuing linked objectives. Combined with the successes of rebel forces in
southern Syria beginning
in late 2014, the seizure of Idlib City and Jisr al-Shughour could indicate
that the momentum of the war has turned against the Assad regime. A
reinvigoration of rebel combat power has been provided in part by JN’s model
for coordinating joint military operations, which has enabled anti-Assad forces
to break the stalemate that has characterized Syrian front lines for over a
year. Syrian rebels are unlikely to win the Syrian war even with increasing
support from JN, but will likely continue to achieve tactical and operational
successes. This could force the regime to make hard decisions about the terrain
it is able and willing to defend, possibly leading to a contraction in the
regime’s deployed military assets as JN and rebels exploit these successes. Alternately,
regime commitment to its “army in all corners” strategy could sustain an
overextension of Assad’s military power that will continue to provide
vulnerable targets to JN and rebel forces outside of major urban centers. The
regime’s response to the growing momentum of anti-Assad forces in northern Syria
will therefore offer wider lessons regarding the likely trajectory of the Syrian
war in 2015.