by: Christopher Kozak with Jennifer Cafarella
ISIS launched a series of spectacular
counterattacks on June 24-25 in a two-pronged line of effort targeting Kurdish
and regime forces in northern Syria. ISIS conducted
a wave of suicide attacks in Hasaka City in northeastern Syria on June 24, detonating
two SVBIEDs as well as three or four SVESTs targeting Kurdish internal security
and regime-held checkpoints in a move likely intended to soften the city’s
defenses. ISIS later launched
an offensive against Hasaka City on June 25, detonating at least one VBIED and seizing
the regime-held southwestern neighborhoods of the city. ISIS’s advance
allegedly received support
from tribal fighters previously aligned with the Assad regime. Simultaneously, approximately
thirty to forty ISIS fighters disguised
in Kurdish YPG and Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebel uniforms infiltrated
the Kurdish border town of Ayn al-Arab (Kobani) on June 25, detonating two
SVBIEDs
at the border crossing to Turkey and clashing with YPG forces.
ISIS’s synchronized attacks in northern Syria likely
represent part of an overarching campaign to contain its opponents in the area and
set conditions for further advances in Syria. The attacks in Ayn al-Arab
(Kobani) and Hasaka City appear designed to disrupt ongoing YPG-led anti-ISIS
operations in northern ar-Raqqa Province in order to divert pressure away from
core ISIS terrain in ar-Raqqa City. The scale of the ISIS offensive against
Hasaka City also suggests that ISIS may intend to seize the city to offset
recent losses to Kurdish and rebel forces along the Syrian-Turkish border at
the border crossing of Tel
Abyad as well as the town of Ayn
Issa and its associated Brigade 93 base further south. At minimum, ISIS’s
attacks in Ayn al-Arab and Hasaka City demonstrate that ISIS possesses sufficient
resiliency to absorb losses in northern Syria without losing the capability to
conduct military operations. Alternately, reports indicating that ISIS did not
mount fierce resistance in either Tel Abyad or Ayn Issa suggest that ISIS may
have accepted a degree of calculated risk north of ar-Raqqa City in order to
conserve resources for new lines of effort targeting Hasaka City, central
Syria, or other regions of the country.